Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 30,912
2 Florida 28,067
3 Arizona 27,260
4 Mississippi 26,344
5 Alabama 23,802
6 Georgia 22,567
7 New York 22,354
8 South Carolina 21,860
9 New Jersey 21,565
10 Nevada 21,451
11 Texas 20,955
12 Tennessee 20,745
13 Rhode Island 20,108
14 District of Columbia 19,325
15 Arkansas 18,852
16 Massachusetts 18,283
17 Iowa 18,047
18 Illinois 17,681
19 Delaware 17,398
20 Maryland 17,395
21 California 17,114
22 Idaho 16,932
23 Nebraska 16,566
24 Utah 15,424
25 North Carolina 14,962
26 Connecticut 14,588
27 Oklahoma 13,526
28 Kansas 13,379
29 Virginia 13,312
30 Indiana 13,309
31 North Dakota 13,127
32 Wisconsin 13,010
33 South Dakota 12,914
34 Missouri 12,574
35 Minnesota 12,473
36 New Mexico 11,669
37 Michigan 10,795
38 Pennsylvania 10,486
39 Kentucky 10,308
40 Ohio 9,893
41 Washington 9,756
42 Colorado 9,672
43 Puerto Rico 9,587
44 Alaska 7,690
45 Wyoming 6,225
46 Montana 6,091
47 Oregon 5,968
48 New Hampshire 5,246
49 West Virginia 5,196
50 Hawaii 4,764
51 Maine 3,240
52 Vermont 2,509

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Mississippi 233
2 North Dakota 230
3 Alabama 209
4 South Dakota 203
5 Georgia 202
6 Puerto Rico 184
7 Tennessee 182
8 Kansas 179
9 Iowa 170
10 Hawaii 164
11 Missouri 164
12 Texas 163
13 Indiana 162
14 Nevada 162
15 Illinois 156
16 Oklahoma 149
17 Florida 148
18 North Carolina 145
19 South Carolina 140
20 Idaho 139
21 Arkansas 137
22 California 137
23 Louisiana 132
24 Minnesota 127
25 Kentucky 121
26 Virginia 108
27 Wisconsin 106
28 Alaska 102
29 Michigan 99
30 Maryland 94
31 Rhode Island 88
32 Utah 86
33 Montana 84
34 District of Columbia 80
35 Ohio 74
36 Nebraska 72
37 Arizona 68
38 Washington 65
39 Colorado 60
40 New Mexico 59
41 Delaware 58
42 Oregon 58
43 Pennsylvania 46
44 Connecticut 45
45 West Virginia 45
46 Wyoming 45
47 Massachusetts 38
48 New Jersey 33
49 New York 28
50 Maine 17
51 New Hampshire 15
52 Vermont 13

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,795
2 New York 1,670
3 Massachusetts 1,298
4 Connecticut 1,250
5 Louisiana 1,024
6 Rhode Island 977
7 District of Columbia 855
8 Mississippi 755
9 Michigan 667
10 Arizona 656
11 Illinois 641
12 Delaware 620
13 Maryland 611
14 Pennsylvania 596
15 South Carolina 487
16 Florida 484
17 Indiana 479
18 Georgia 475
19 Alabama 412
20 Texas 407
21 Nevada 389
22 New Mexico 356
23 Ohio 341
24 Colorado 334
25 Iowa 331
26 Minnesota 322
27 New Hampshire 315
28 California 310
29 Virginia 289
30 Washington 256
31 Missouri 249
32 North Carolina 244
33 Tennessee 231
34 Arkansas 230
35 Kentucky 203
36 Nebraska 198
37 Wisconsin 187
38 North Dakota 185
39 Oklahoma 184
40 South Dakota 181
41 Idaho 176
42 Kansas 148
43 Puerto Rico 122
44 Utah 121
45 Oregon 102
46 West Virginia 99
47 Maine 97
48 Vermont 92
49 Montana 85
50 Wyoming 63
51 Alaska 41
52 Hawaii 33

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Louisiana 5
2 Georgia 4
3 Arizona 3
4 Arkansas 3
5 Florida 3
6 Mississippi 3
7 South Carolina 3
8 Texas 3
9 California 2
10 Massachusetts 2
11 North Dakota 2
12 Tennessee 2
13 Alabama 1
14 Delaware 1
15 Idaho 1
16 Iowa 1
17 Kentucky 1
18 Maryland 1
19 Minnesota 1
20 Missouri 1
21 Nevada 1
22 New Mexico 1
23 North Carolina 1
24 Oklahoma 1
25 Puerto Rico 1
26 Rhode Island 1
27 Virginia 1
28 West Virginia 1
29 Alaska 0
30 Colorado 0
31 Connecticut 0
32 District of Columbia 0
33 Hawaii 0
34 Illinois 0
35 Indiana 0
36 Kansas 0
37 Maine 0
38 Michigan 0
39 Montana 0
40 Nebraska 0
41 New Hampshire 0
42 New Jersey 0
43 New York 0
44 Ohio 0
45 Oregon 0
46 Pennsylvania 0
47 South Dakota 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 141,085 1 99
Lafayette Florida 138,328 2 99
Lake Tennessee 116,876 3 99
Lee Arkansas 112,115 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 105,574 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 36,485 152 95
Richland South Carolina 24,045 410 86
Orange California 14,582 961 69
York South Carolina 14,307 986 68
Pierce Washington 7,980 1760 43

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,612 1 99
Galax city Virginia 4,412 2 99
Randolph Georgia 3,983 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,634 4 99
McKinley New Mexico 3,349 5 99
Richland South Carolina 445 673 78
Davidson Tennessee 354 848 73
Orange California 282 1029 67
Pierce Washington 191 1344 57
York South Carolina 139 1586 49

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons